The cost of EV batteries is a significant factor that determines how the EVs will stack up in the coming decades. While the battery costs are reducing, experts debate how far the dwindle will go before EVs hit a price parity. Our outlook is a long-term forecast of how electrification, shared mobility, and autonomous driving will impact road transport from now out to 2040.
To help you understand and digest this concept, we present you with a thoroughly researched article containing a comprehensive writeup on “EV battery costs vs Electrical Vehicle price.” The report looks into how trends may impact the energy, infrastructure, automotive, and battery materials markets in the coming decade. Will everyone soon be owning an EV because of reduced battery costs and an increased number of EV models?
EV sales from 2019
Remarkably, EVs’ registrations increased from 247,000 in 2019 to around 465,000 in 2020 despite COVID19. With 2021 looking already healthy at its youthful stage, the sales will likely continue to rise because of an anticipated fall in battery prices, improvement in energy density, increase in the number of charging infrastructure, and of course, the spreading of sales to markets.
Even though the total vehicle electric share seems small, it is rising faster than we thought. Markets like Europe and China are already achieving high penetrations increasing the global average. The only challenge that there seem to be is with emerging markets that have a lower adaptation. But as these prices shrink even further, consumers’ anxiety is disappearing! EVs may soon outdo ICE-powered vehicles, making the world an exciting place to be!
Automakers are already accelerating their plans to launch the latest EVs on the market. By 2022, the market is likely to flood with more than 500 different models globally. Competitive pricing and consumer choice will be another significant factor that will attract new buyers.
With the anticipated launch rate, the vehicles will soon be an increasingly common sight by 2022. The industry experts also claim that solid-state EV batteries might help in speeding up the dropping prices. This way, EVs will end up having an almost-similar price tag with petrol and diesel powered cars, thus increasing their adoption.
If the launch is as predicted by the experts, the world will be EV-oriented!
A look into the EV battery packs
The advancements in battery technology are what has mainly resulted in the decreasing prices of EV batteries. The battery pack is approximately ¼ of the total vehicle’s cost, which is a significant factor in setting the price tag. An EV battery pack stores around 10-100 kWh of electricity. For example, a typical Tesla Model S comes with a 400 miles range and a battery capacity of 100 kWh. On the other hand, a Mitsubishi i-MIEV features a 62 mile range and a battery capacity of 16 kWh.
An EV battery pack went for over £737/kWh in 2010. This significantly reduced to £110/kWh by 2019. Even with this fall, the auto industry is still figuring out how best to cut costs further. Manufacturers presume that these prices will soon reduce the to £59/kWh mark. And at this battery price point, EV prices will be much lower than that of combustion engine vehicles.
Interesting facts that you should know!
Did you Know? The average battery price per-kWh is likely to be £74 by 2023 and £43 by 2030. The £73-per kilowatt price point where the EV costs will match the average prices of ICE-powered automotive. Interesting, right? Fortunately, it seems like this cost is continuously reducing, and experts predict that a time will come when the price will meet an average middle-class customer’s needs.
Why is the prediction sure?
Besides the fall of battery costs, the EV market will undoubtedly witness a rapid evolution because of:
Proactive participation from the automotive industry in designing more EVs makes this prediction sure. For instance, Tesla signed a contract in 2018 with the Chinese authorities to establish an auto plant in Shanghai. The two built a factory outside the United States that’d double the average size of the EV maker’s manufacturing globally.
The favourable government support and policies worldwide on tax rebates, grants, and subsidies encourage the automotive sector to keep up with the ongoing inventions. Governments’ sensitivity towards a cleaner and greener environment has rapidly increased the global demand for zero-emission cars. Developed nations such as the UK, the US, and Europe are actively encouraging the invention and use of EVs to reduce harmful emissions to mother nature. This invention is resulting in a growth in EV sales.
The establishment of significant EV markets in countries like China and the European Union also makes the prediction sure. This market growth is thanks to the increasing investment by automotive experts in the development of EVs.
Other factors include
High demand for increased vehicle range/charge in developed countries.
The increasing availability of many EV charging infrastructure in many global countries.
The availability of convenient home charging options encourages consumers to buy EVs.
Currently, the EV showrooms are a no-go-zone for those with tight budgets outside of a few affordable EV options. But here’s the good news to the automotive industry, global consumers, and the planet at large – nearly everyone will soon own and drive an EV. With this ongoing prediction, EVs will no longer have high prices, attracting even the middle-class shopper.
We all long for the soon-to-be days when the fall of EV battery price will increase the number of EV models!
Geschreven door Lynn
Writes blogs about EV charging and climate solutions for 50five.